A potentially record-setting super El Niño could reshape winter weather across North America, bringing a mix of heavy rain, warmer-than-average temperatures and uncertain snowfall patterns, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA defines a super El Niño as a particularly strong climate event in which sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above average. The warming alters atmospheric circulation patterns, influencing temperatures and precipitation around the globe.
The climate phenomenon is expected to deliver wetter conditions across parts of the West and Gulf Coast, improve snowfall prospects in some mountain regions after recent dry years, and contribute to a drier start to winter in portions of the Northeast.
While impacts vary by region, super El Niño events are generally associated with warmer global temperatures and increased weather variability.
Across North America, precipitation patterns can shift dramatically during strong El Niño years. Though patterns observed during winters in 1972-73 and 2023-24 reached a strong threshold, only four super El Niño events have been recorded since 1950.
According to NOAA meteorologist Kyle Mozley, the last super El Niño events occurred during the winters of 1957-58, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
“The last very strong El Niño event was 2015-16. However, climatologically, it was an outlier compared to the other very strong El Niño events,” Mozley said. “While the Pacific Northwest saw above-normal precipitation during the winter months in each case, Southern California was drier in 2015-16.”
Current forecasts point to wetter-than-normal conditions across California, the Southwest and parts of the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, much of the northern United States, from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes, is likely to experience warmer temperatures and less consistent snowfall.
Because of the limited historical record, Mozley cautioned against making firm predictions.
“Unfortunately, the sample size is small, with only four events since 1950, so it is hard to draw specific conclusions on how this winter will shape up,” he said.
Mozley said several factors could increase precipitation across the West Coast and portions of the Southwest, including parts of New Mexico and the Colorado Rockies.
“There are a few reasons for the West Coast’s above-normal precipitation,” Mozley said.
“One is the increased likelihood of an extension of the East Asian jet from the deep tropics. This is what is typically referred to as an atmospheric river, which can bring periods of heavy precipitation to the West Coast. The main questions are how far east that moisture makes it, whether it will impact New Mexico and Colorado ski areas, and how frequent those atmospheric river events will be.”
Research in Colorado points to a wet fall, relatively dry winter months from December through February and an active spring. That outlook raises questions about whether meaningful drought relief will reach the Front Range.
“The main concern here will be temperatures and snow levels this fall,” Mozley said. “Will precipitation fall as rain, except at the highest elevations, and leave lower elevations without snowpack heading into the winter months, when conditions could be drier? Those are big questions here in Colorado as we move through the next three to four months.”
Water Outlook in the West Remains Complicated
For drought-stricken Western states, the critical question may not be how much precipitation falls, but whether it arrives as rain or snow. Mountain snowpack remains essential for replenishing rivers, reservoirs and ecosystems throughout the region.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than 90% of the West is experiencing drought of some degree, with 48% of the region under severe drought.
Additionally, Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) values across the West are between 50% and 70% of the median SWE values for this time of year, with the majority of the region under 50% of the median value compared with historical records taken between 1991 and 2020.
Looking at the projected super El Niño and current drought conditions, Peter Goble with the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University added that the rare weather event is only one factor to consider when looking at the winter season ahead and its potential.
“Many of the temperature forecasts are influenced by both El Niño and long-term climate warming,” Goble said.
Considering the Climate Prediction Center uses an average based on temperatures recorded between 1991 and 2020, “normal” today is already warmer than what many people remember from the 1990s,” he continued.
The West continues to contend with snowpack deficits that have contributed to declining reservoir levels and ongoing concerns throughout the Colorado River Basin.
“A single great winter can dramatically improve conditions in Colorado but won’t necessarily erase the broader Western water deficit,” Goble said.
The challenge could be more complex for major Utah reservoirs such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell, which depend on water from multiple states across the Colorado River system.
“The same is not true with the interconnected picture of Lakes Mead and Powell,” he continued, noting that climate change, population growth and interstate water management continue to complicate long-term recovery efforts.
According to data collected by West Water Watch, Colorado’s Blue Mesa Reservoir is currently 20% full, while Lake Granby is slightly higher at 54% full. In comparison, Lake Powell is currently 22% full and Lake Mead is measuring at 26% full. Both water supplies are considered critically low, falling to their lowest combined level since 1957.
Justin Louen, a hydrologist with NOAA, said a normal to above-average snowfall year may alleviate the short-term impacts of drought, such as seasonal wildfires, though long-term impacts like sustained water supply will take years of consistent winter precipitation to alter.
“A near-normal or above-normal mountain snowpack can be helpful in the short term, particularly for drought improvement, increased streamflows and improved vegetation and landscape resiliency against wildfire,” Louen said.
“Long-term issues, such as reservoir storage and water availability, are more influenced by the cumulative effects from multiple years of mountain snowpack conditions, subsequent snowmelt runoff into reservoirs, and changes to regional water use and demands.”
Mountain Resorts in the West Report Loss
The mountain-sport industry in the West struggled through a disappointing 2025-26 season as below-average snowfall and snowpack reaching record-breaking lows decreased resort operations across the region.
Vail Resorts, which owns and operates 42 mountain resorts across North America, reported a decrease in operations across the board, citing a lack of snowfall in the West and a historically warm March as reasons.
“The winter of 2025/2026 has been one of the most challenging winters in history across the western U.S., with record low snowfall and historically warm temperatures negatively impacting visitation and spending throughout the season. March conditions saw a continuation of low snowfall and warmer temperatures well outside of historical norms, leading to weaker late-season visitation and earlier than planned closures for many resorts across the western U.S. As we previously highlighted heading into March, these dynamics increased variability and resulted in visitation declines for both destination and local guests, with the largest impact in the Rockies, where visitation declined 25%,” Rob Katz, chief executive officer of Vail Resorts, said.
According to the Vail Resorts Ski Season Metrics report published in April 2026, season-to-date total skier visits were down 14.9% compared with the prior-year period, lift revenue, including an allocated portion of season-pass revenue for each applicable period, was down 5.6%.
Additionally, ski-school revenue fell 12%, dining revenue 11.7%, and North American resort retail revenue dropped 6.6% compared with the prior year.
While resorts across the West struggled, the Northeast experienced one of its strongest winters in recent years.
According to the National Ski Areas Association, ski areas across Vermont and Maine helped boost regional visitation from 12.5 million to 12.9 million visits, making the season the Northeast’s second-best of the past decade.
Vermont led the way, recording 4.36 million skier visits. According to Ski Vermont, the total was up 4.7% from the previous season and 11% above the state’s 10-year average. It marked Vermont’s strongest season since 2014-15.
Resorts including Jay Peak and Killington benefited from early openings and extended operating seasons, with some mountains remaining open for nearly four months.
Maine also experienced strong skier demand. Sunday River reported robust visitation, while multi-resort products such as the Indy Pass cited significant growth in Northeast sales, with Maine among its strongest-performing markets.
Whether a super El Niño ultimately benefits ski areas in Colorado, New Mexico and other Western destinations will depend largely on one factor: temperatures. Even if precipitation increases, warmer conditions could shift storms from snow to rain at lower elevations, limiting snowpack gains and reducing the benefits many mountain communities are hoping for.
“We do have an increased probability of precipitation this fall and winter, but that doesn’t guarantee one of those banner snow years,” Goble said.
“It’s like playing a game of poker with a few extra aces. I don’t want to amp up people’s expectations too much.”
Writing and research by Abigail Soukup. Lead image courtesy of Casey Day and Loveland Ski Area.
